Spatial patterns and determinants of low utilization of delivery care service and postnatal check-up within 2 months following birth in Ethiopia: Bivariate analysis.

BACKGROUND: Home delivery is a nonclinical childbirth practice that takes place in one's home with or without traditional birth attendants and postnatal care is the care given to the mother and her newborn baby; according to world health organization (WHO), the postnatal phase, begins one hour after birth and lasts six weeks (42 days). This paper aimed to study the spatial pattern and determinant factors of low utilization of delivery care (DC) services and postnatal check-up (PNC) after live births in Ethiopia. METHODS: This study used the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data as a source. A total weighted samples of 11023 women-children pairs were included. The bivariate binary logistic regression analyses with spatial effect were modeled using SAS version 9.4 and ArcGIS version 10.8 was used for mapping. RESULTS: The spatial distribution of low utilization of delivery care service and postnatal check-up were significantly clustered in Ethiopia (Moran's I statistic 0.378, P-value < 0.001 and 0.177, P-value < 0.001 respectively). Among 11023 children-women pair, the prevalence of home delivery and no postnatal check-up within two months following birth were 72.6% and 91.4% respectively. The Liben, Borena, Guji, Bale, Dolo and Zone 2 were predicted to have high prevalence of home delivery and part of Afder, Shabelle, Korahe, Dolo and Zone 2 were high risk areas of no postnatal checkup. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Lack of occupation, region, large family size, higher birth order, low utilization of antenatal care visit, unable to access mass media, big problem of health facility distance and the spatial variable were found to be jointly significant predictors of low utilization of DC and PNC in Ethiopia. Whereas older age, being reside in rural area and low wealth status affects delivery care service utilization. We suggest health providers, policy makers and stakeholders consider those variables with priority given to Liben, Borena, Guji, Bale, Dolo, Zone 2, Afder, Shabelle and Korahe, where home delivery and no PNC were predicted relatively high. We also recommend researchers to conduct further studies using latest survey data set.

Joint modeling of longitudinal changes of blood pressure and time to remission of hypertensive patients receiving treatment: Bayesian approach.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertension is a widespread condition when the blood's force on the artery walls is extremely high to develop adverse health effects. This paper aimed to jointly model the longitudinal change of blood pressures (systolic and diastolic) and time to the first remission of hypertensive outpatients receiving treatment. METHODS: A retrospective study design was used to collect appropriate data on longitudinal changes in blood pressure and time-to-event from the medical charts of 301 hypertensive outpatients under follow-up at Felege Hiwot referral hospital, Ethiopia. The data exploration was done using summary statistics measures, individual profile plots, Kaplan-Meier plots, and log-rank tests. To get wide-ranging information about the progression, joint multivariate models were employed. RESULTS: A total of 301 hypertensive patients who take treatment was taken from Felege Hiwot referral hospital recorded between Sep. 2018 to Feb. 2021. Of this 153 (50.8%) were male, and 124 (49.2%) were residents from rural areas. About 83(27.6%), 58 (19.3%), 82 (27.2%), and 25 (8.3%) have a history of diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and HIV respectively. The median time of hypertensive patients to have first remission time was 11 months. The hazard of the patient's first remission time for males was 0.63 times less likely than the hazard for females. The time to attain the first remission for patients who had a history of diabetes mellitus was 46% lower than for those who had no history of diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Blood pressure dynamics significantly affect the time to the first remission of hypertensive outpatients receiving treatment. The patients who had a good follow-up, lower BUN, lower serum calcium, lower serum sodium, lower hemoglobin, and take the treatment enalapril showed an opportunity in decreasing their blood pressure. This compels patients to experience the first remission early. Besides, age, patient's history of diabetes, patient's history of cardiovascular disease, and treatment type were the joint determinant factors for the longitudinal change of BP and the first remission time. The Bayesian joint model approach provides specific dynamic predictions, wide-ranging information about the disease transitions, and better knowledge of disease etiology.